21:20 - 9.07.2026

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July 9, Fineko/abc.az. Dutch multinational banking group ING has published its comprehensive macroeconomic forecast looking into the second half of 2026 and heading toward 2027.

According to ABC.AZ tracking the analytical brief, due to a faster-than-expected stabilization of crude transit through the Strait of Hormuz, ING has adjusted its Brent price benchmarks downward:

• Oil Prices: Brent crude prices are now projected to average $80/bbl in Q3 2026 and cool down to $74/bbl by Q4 2026.

• Forex Layout: Aligning with expectations that the US Federal Reserve will hold interest rates steady until the summer of 2027, the US Dollar is projected to experience mild depreciation. ING targets the EUR/USD pair at 1.18 and the USD/JPY cross near 158 by year-end.

Carsten Brzeski, ING’s Global Head of Macro Research, noted that lower energy costs will alleviate consumer pressures across the US and Europe. Additionally, tracking China's structural trajectory, the bank expects the People's Bank of China to deploy a rate cut in Q3 to balance growth, with GDP momentum estimated at roughly 4.8% for the first half of 2026.