11:25 - 13.05.2026

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May 13, Fineko/abc.az. In April, the Persian Gulf countries (Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the UAE, Qatar and Bahrain) reduced oil production to 10.5 million b/d, more than previously expected. The main reason is the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which may delay the restoration of supplies until the end of 2026 or early 2027.

ABC.AZ informs that the Energy Information Administration (EIA) lowered its forecast for global production of liquid hydrocarbons for 2026 to 101.6 million b/d (-2.67 million b/d compared to the previous estimate), which means a drop of 4.75 million b/d against 2025. At the same time, oil reserves will decrease faster than expected - by 2.6 million bpd.

Peak production reduction is expected in May (up to 10.8 million b/d). Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait and the UAE reduced production the most. Additionally, the market was affected by the UAE's withdrawal from OPEC, which lowered the forecast of the alliance's spare capacity by 2027 to 2.5 million b/d.