11:10 - 25.09.2025

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September 25, Fineko/abc.az. Azerbaijan's fiscal and external resilience remains strong, ABC.AZ informs, referring to EBRD’s forecast on the economic indicators of Azerbaijan.

According to the report, in the 1st half of 2025, the State Budget was executed with surplus of 4.4% of GDP. Foreign exchange reserves, including assets of the State Oil Fund, have reached $78.8 bn, which makes it possible to cover imports for more than 3 years. Under these conditions, international rating agency Moody's upgraded Azerbaijan's sovereign rating to Baa3 in June 2025.

The EBRD reports that in the first 8 months of 2025, inflation rose to 5.6%. Despite this, the Central Bank lowered the discount rate by 25 basis points to 7% in July. Since the end of 2023, a total of 200 basis points have been softened.

According to the bank's forecast, Azerbaijan's real GDP will grow by 2% in 2025 and by 2.5% in 2026. Fluctuations in energy prices and regional geopolitical factors remain the main risks. At the same time, expansion of energy cooperation with the EU, development of the Middle Corridor, and the U.S.-backed peace process could open up new opportunities for the country.