19:38 - 10.06.2026

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June 10, Fineko/abc.az. According to a research note published by ING, the Turkish Lira (TL) will continue to be a favored vehicle among emerging market investors in the coming months, sustained by the central bank's structural "real appreciation strategy."

ABC.AZ reports, citing the bank's brief, that despite the narrowing of carry margins, Turkey's Central Bank (TCMB) remains fully committed to keeping lira depreciation below the headline consumer inflation rate.

Key Macroeconomic Projections:

• Exchange Rate Dynamics: As the USD/TRY pair traded at a record high of 46.14 on Wednesday, ING revised its year-end forecast, projecting the dollar to climb to 53.00 against the lira.

• Monetary Policy and Rates: Ahead of Thursday's rate-setting meeting, analysts noted that recent macroprudential measures to curb credit growth diminish the immediate probability of a rate hike. However, easing space will remain tight, with the policy rate expected to hover around 35% by year-end.

• Inflation & GDP Outlook: May inflation data signals that a definitive downward trajectory is yet to be established, with annual inflation projected to close slightly below 30%. Prolonged tight monetary frameworks and climbing borrowing costs are set to trigger a sharper slowdown in H2, capping Turkey's GDP growth at around 3%.