21:30 - 9.06.2026

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June 9, Fineko/abc.az. Ahead of the European Central Bank's (ECB) policy meeting on June 11, prominent financial institutions including Commerzbank, Natixis, ABN Amro, and Rabobank suggest that the central bank will opt for a measured tightening approach amid sticky inflation and weakening growth dynamics.

ABC.AZ reports that money markets have fully priced in a 25-basis-point interest rate hike across all three main policy rates, anticipating a cautious stance from the regulator.

Key Bank Insights & Projections:

• ABN Amro: Expects consecutive 25 bps rate hikes in June and July, pushing the deposit rate to 2.50%. The bank forecasts the ECB to pause thereafter, initiating consecutive rate cuts only in Q1 and Q2 of 2027, bringing the deposit rate back to 2.0%.

• Commerzbank: Driven by Eurozone inflation rising to 3.2% and core inflation unexpectedly hitting 2.5%, the bank sees a subsequent 25 bps hike by September as highly probable. However, it deems a third rate hike later this year as unlikely.

• Rabobank: Pointing toward potential stagflationary shocks stemming from geopolitical tensions near the Strait of Hormuz, the bank anticipates a few risk-management rate hikes rather than a full-scale tightening cycle.

• Natixis: Forecasts a 25 bps increase this week, expecting ECB President Christine Lagarde to adopt a mildly dovish tone to avoid triggering long-term rate hike expectations. Depending on geopolitical factors, a second hike remains possible in July (35% probability) or September (55% probability).