Bank of America Issues Forecast on Central Bank of Turkey’s Interest Rate Decision

20:30 - 9.06.2026

June 9, Fineko/abc.az. Bank of America (BofA) projects that the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) will keep its policy rate unchanged at this week's meeting, citing persistent inflationary pressures.

ABC.AZ reports that according to BofA economist Hande Küçük, while domestic demand shows signs of cooling, annual headline inflation has climbed to 32,6%, underscoring the need to sustain a tight monetary policy stance.

Key Highlights & Global Bank Forecasts:

  • BofA’s Base Scenario: The institution expects the CBRT to hold the one-week repo rate steady, maintaining the effective funding cost at 40%. For year-end 2026, BofA maintained its inflation forecast at 30%, the repo rate at 37%, and Turkey's GDP growth at 2.8%. However, a hike to 40% remains a viable contingency if reserve pressures intensify.

  • Wall Street Consensus: Economists at Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs align with BofA, expecting the central bank to hold rates steady this week. Conversely, Garanti BBVA analysts predict an aggressive hike from 37% to 40%, driven by ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.