15:15 - 6.06.2026

---

June 6, Fineko/abc.az. International rating agency Fitch Ratings has released its economic growth and inflation outlook for Azerbaijan.

ABC.AZ reports that following a sharp growth deceleration in 2025, Azerbaijan's real GDP growth is projected to pick up modestly to 2% in 2026. According to the agency, the economic windfall from higher energy prices will be balanced by the government’s prudent fiscal stance and moderate credit growth.

Inflation and Currency Dynamics:

• Accelerating Inflation: Average consumer price inflation is forecasted to rise to 6.1% in 2026, up from 5.6% in 2025. This uptick is driven by climbing logistics costs, elevated food prices, and recent hikes in state-administered utility and service tariffs.

• Manat FX Shield: Fitch highlights that near-term inflationary pressures will be partially offset by the nominal appreciation of the Azerbaijani manat against the currencies of its primary trading partners.

• Medium-Term Headwinds: The structural slowdown in domestic oil production remains a key medium-term growth obstacle. Meanwhile, broader economic diversification is hindered by a heavy state footprint in the economy, limited financial intermediation, and weak non-energy foreign direct investment (FDI).