IEA Cuts Global Oil Demand Forecast Amid Prolonged Iran Conflict

14:47 - 11.09.2026


September 11, Fineko/abc.az. The International Energy Agency (IEA) raised its projection for this year's global oil demand decline by 940,000 barrels per day to 2.5 million bpd, warning that prolonged conflict involving Iran could force further consumption cuts. This marks the sharpest annual demand contraction since the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic.

The agency added that an expected supply surplus will now be delayed until 2027.

Despite shrinking demand, global oil stockpiles are depleting at record speeds, pushing Brent crude past $100 per barrel for the first time since July, reaching around $107. The IEA noted that the economic damage to oil demand in 2026 rivals the four largest oil shocks of the past 60 years, with middle distillates like diesel and Asian petrochemical feedstocks bearing the heaviest impact.