23:05 - 16.06.2026
June 16, Fineko/abc.az. Banking giant BBVA has released its latest "Turkey Economic Outlook" report, highlighting a tighter layout for monetary easing while keeping its structural year-end exchange rate forecasts unchanged.
According to ABC.AZ, BBVA has revised Turkey’s 2026 GDP growth projection downward from 4% to 3%. Analysts noted that following a 2.5% year-on-year expansion in Q1, economic activity began slowing further in May, though metrics do not yet signal alarming thresholds.
Core Macroeconomic Forecasts & Policy Shifts:
Monetary Pipeline & Policy Rate: The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) faces a narrow window for continuous rate cuts. However, while the overarching policy mix will remain restrictive, further technical rate trims could occur as authorities rely more heavily on macroprudential adjustments. BBVA expects the benchmark policy rate to sit at 37% through the end of the year.
Inflation & Foreign Exchange Trajectory: Following upward inflation surprises in April, coupled with prolonged high energy prices, the bank has adjusted its year-end inflation forecast to 30%. Conversely, the year-end USD/TRY baseline forecast was firmly maintained at 52. Analysts expect longer periods of higher real interest rates to shield the local currency.
Geopolitical Rebound Assumptions: The revised 3% expansion baseline assumes a mild economic recovery in the second half of 2026, contingent on a broader resolution of ongoing Middle Eastern geopolitical conflicts.
