19:14 - 16.06.2026

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June 16, Fineko/abc.az. Global crude prices have breached the psychological floor, sliding below $80 per barrel for the first time since early March. The sharp contraction follows an interim diplomatic breakthrough between the US and Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, driving strong expectations of a major supply resurgence.

According to ABC.AZ, speaking to reporters at the G7 Leaders' Summit, US President Donald Trump confirmed that commercial vessels have commenced transit through the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a rapid cooling of energy markets. The correction has effectively wiped out the bulk of the geopolitical risk premium integrated during the conflict, tempering energy-driven inflationary pressures just as central banks weigh future rate pathways.

Market Index Performance and Analytical Adjustments:

• Trading Metrics: Global benchmark Brent crude futures dropped 3.9% in London to trade at $79.20 per barrel. Concurrently, US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) slipped to its lowest point since March 10, hitting $78,27.

• Logistical Thresholds: Analysts warn that clearing the corridor does not guarantee an immediate return to baseline export capacities. Pavel Molchanov, an energy analyst at Raymond James, noted that untangling maritime and operational bottlenecks will take time, with a return to pre-war supply volumes expected no earlier than late July.

• Morgan Stanley slashes price baseline: Following the geopolitical de-escalation, Morgan Stanley aggressively revised its price track downward. The bank cut its Q3 Brent forecast from $100 to $90 per barrel, while significantly lowering its Q4 outlook from $95 to $80. Morgan Stanley's modeling expects 50% of offline oil production to be restored by September, rising to 80% by year-end.