21:00 - 16.06.2026
June 16, Fineko/abc.az. According to investment bank Jefferies, global crude prices are highly unlikely to track back to pre-war marks in the near term, with the firm projecting that it will be difficult for oil to slide below $75 over the next three months.
According to ABC.AZ, navigating a research note authored by economist Mohit Kumar on June 16, substantial headwinds remain due to structural uncertainties surrounding the sustainability of the recent US-Iran understandings.
Core Insights from the Briefing:
Strait of Hormuz Shipping Bottlenecks: From a logistical perspective, clearing the Strait of Hormuz will take considerable time. If Iran imposes transit levies, maritime traffic is poised to pivot toward Omani waters, which are reportedly sea-mined. Restoring secure commercial shipping lanes could take weeks or months.
Medium to Long-Term Framework (2-3 Years): Over a longer horizon, Jefferies expects oil to retreat sharply toward the $60 boundary. Drivers include a fractured OPEC framework giving the UAE more headroom to scale output, and expanding production pipelines in Venezuela. Protracted Middle Eastern vulnerabilities will also compel nations to accelerate alternative energy options, diluting net oil demand.
Fed Adjustments Under Kevin Warsh: The Federal Reserve is scheduled to announce its interest rate verdict on Wednesday, marking the first monetary policy meeting led by the newly appointed chair, Kevin Warsh. While Warsh is expected to maintain a guarded stance due to ongoing war spillovers, any commentary highlighting underlying deflationary forces beyond geopolitical shocks will be interpreted as a dovish signal.
Jefferies maintains its core baseline that the Federal Reserve's next structural step will be an interest rate cut, forecasting one trim later this year and another in early 2027.
