14:58 - 4.06.2026

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June 4, Fineko/abc.az. The EBRD has revised down its forecasts for the growth of the Turkish economy in its report on regional economic prospects.

ABC.AZ informs that the Bank lowered the forecast for Turkey's GDP growth for 2026 to 3.5%, whereas earlier (in February 2026) it expected this figure at 4%. Similarly, the growth forecast for 2027, which was estimated at 4.5% in February, was reduced to 4%.

The main macroeconomic reasons for the revision of forecasts:

Domestic pressure: Rising energy import costs and persistent inflationary pressures;

Geopolitical risks: The potential negative impact of ongoing conflicts in the Middle East on tourism revenues and the manufacturing supply chain.

The report notes that disruptions in industrial supply chains, capital outflows and falling tourism revenues caused by the crisis in the Middle East could spur inflation and increase pressure on Turkey's current account balance.

However, despite all these challenges, the EBRD analysts stressed that thanks to the strengthened financial and external buffers (reserves), the Turkish economy has sufficient potential to confidently withstand possible shocks.