11:35 - 22.10.2025

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October 22, Fineko/abc.az. The Central Bank of Azerbaijan (CBA) has updated its inflation forecast for 2025-2026.

ABC.AZ informs that according to the updated forecasts, annual inflation in 2025 will be within 6%, and in 2026 - 5.7%. In July 2025, the regulator forecast inflation at 5.7% and 5.3%, respectively.

"In the baseline scenario, annual inflation is projected to be within the target range by the end of 2025 and in 2026. According to the baseline forecast published in October, annual inflation will be 6% in 2025 and 5.7% in 2026, taking into account the increase due to supply factors. The balance of inflation risks has not changed significantly since the last meeting. The instability of global trade continues to provoke fluctuations in commodity and financial markets. The impact of import prices, the main external inflation risk factor, depends on the inflation of trading partners and the dynamics of the nominal effective exchange rate. As for internal risk factors, the updated forecasts indicate that inflation in the coming period will be determined mainly by supply and cost factors. The initial parameters of State Budget 2026, along with slowdown in annual lending growth, reduce the risk of overheating of aggregate demand," the CBA says.