14:20 - 15.09.2026

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September 15, Fineko/abc.az. Credit rating agency Fitch Ratings has published its key baseline assumptions applied in the credit evaluation of the State Oil Company of Azerbaijan (SOCAR).

The primary parameters embedded in Fitch’s rating framework include:

Oil Prices: Brent crude is projected at $87/bbl in 2025, $65/bbl in 2026, and $60/bbl thereafter.

Natural Gas Prices: Title Transfer Facility (TTF) natural gas benchmark is modeled at $14/mcf in 2026, $9/mcf in 2027, $7/mcf over 2028–2029, and $5/mcf in subsequent years.

Production Trends: Upstream production volume declines are expected to stabilize starting in 2028.

Exchange Rate: The USD/AZN exchange rate is pegged at 1.70.

Capital Expenditures: Annual capex is forecast to average approximately 4.0 billion AZN over 2026–2030.

Petkim Support: Direct support to Petkim is expected at 250 million AZN annually through 2027.

State Distributions: Dividend payments and distributions to the government are modeled at an annual average of 1.8 billion AZN over 2026–2030.