Fitch Projects SOCAR’s EBITDA to Reach 12 Billion Manats in 2026

12:08 - 15.09.2026


September 15, Fineko/abc.az. According to a report by international rating agency Fitch Ratings, SOCAR’s EBITDA after dividends to non-controlling interests reached 9.3 billion AZN ($5.47 billion) in 2025, up significantly from 5 billion AZN ($2.94 billion) in 2024. The strong financial expansion reflects the full-year consolidation impact of the Southern Gas Corridor (SGC) and the STAR Refinery.

Consequently, EBITDA net leverage remained low at 1.0x. According to Fitch forecasts:

2026 Outlook: Driven by sustained high oil and gas prices alongside solid refining margins, EBITDA is expected to expand to 12 billion AZN ($7.06 billion), offsetting increased capex and M&A spending while keeping net leverage stable at 1.0x.

2028–2029 Outlook: EBITDA is projected to decline to AZN 7.5–8 billion ($4.41–$4.71 billion) by 2028–2029, resulting in net leverage normalizing to approximately 2.0x by 2029.