12:05 - 1.04.2026

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April 1, Fineko/abc.az. Azerbaijan is among the countries that have relatively benefited from the recent escalation in the Middle East, but this advantage is driven mainly by prices rather than volumes.

ABC.AZ reports, citing ING Group, the largest financial group in the Netherlands, that as an exporting country, every $10 per barrel increase in oil prices raises Azerbaijan’s annual exports by approx. $3 billion (4% of GDP) and generates an additional $1.5–2 billion in budget revenues.

“Against this backdrop, we no longer see risks of a negative current account balance or a break in the manat’s exchange rate peg in 2026–2027,” ING said.

According to analysts, direct proximity to Iran may increase defense and security spending in Azerbaijan. Nevertheless, the country’s fiscal position remains strong. “In 2025, the consolidated budget surplus amounted to 2.6% of GDP, while sovereign savings exceeded 100% of GDP,” the report noted.