17:33 - 1.12.2025

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December 1, Fineko/abc.az. Fitch Solutions, a member of the Fitch Group, has updated its forecast for Azerbaijan's economic growth: it is again set at 2.6% for this year and 2.4% for 2026.

ABC.AZ informs that this is stated in the FS message. The report emphasizes that, despite the government's steps aimed at diversifying the economy, the oil & gas sector still significantly affects the country's growth rate.

According to the report, the high dependence of the Azerbaijani economy on the oil & gas sector (38.5% of GDP) makes it vulnerable to a decline in world oil prices, which reduces revenues in this area and weakens overall growth:

"In 2025 alone, the price of oil will decrease by an average of 15%. In the forecasts for 2026-2027, the risks of a price shift are more likely to increase. This is because sanctions against Russia may limit part of the global oil supply."

FS believes that the non-oil sector will continue to support growth amid new trade agreements and a gradual recovery in investment activity. The contribution of private consumption will also increase due to the priority of social spending.

The document notes that in 2027-2028, real GDP growth rate of Azerbaijan will rise to 2.9%, in 2029 to 3.6%, and in 2030 it will decrease to 2.8%.

Nominal GDP this year will reach $102.4 billion, next year it will grow up to $110.5 billion, in 2027 up to $115.6 billion, and in 2028 up to $121 billion. In 2029, country's nominal GDP will exceed $130 billion, and in 2030 it will reach $141.5 billion.

GDP per capita is projected at $9,740 this year, $10,468 next year, and $10,912 in 2027. It is noted that this figure will exceed $11,000 in 2028, $12,000 in 2029 and $13,000 in 2030.