11:37 - 14.07.2026

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July 14, Fineko/abc.az. On the eve of the publication of the June US inflation data (today at 16:30 on Baku time) and the speech of Fed chariman Kevin Warsh before Congress, expectations of a rise in interest rates sharply increased in the markets.

Despite forecasts of slowdown in annual inflation from 4.2% to 3.8%, the probability of a 25-basis-point increase in Fed's interest rate in July has jumped from below 10% to almost 50% in the options market, according to reports.

The increase in expectations was also fueled by statements from Christopher Waller, a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors who was previously considered a "dove", who suggested that interest rates could rise soon if core inflation accelerates. Ed Al-Husseini, portfolio manager at Columbia Threadneedle, added that the likelihood of policy tightening in July now exceeds the scenario of keeping the rate at its current level.