21:00 - 19.06.2026
June 19, Fineko/abc.az. The Central Bank of the Russian Federation (CBR) cut its benchmark policy rate by 25 basis points to 14.25% at its meeting today.
According to ABC.AZ, while the consensus forecast among Bloomberg analysts expected a larger 50-basis-point reduction to 14%, the regulator adopted a more cautious approach, slowing the pace of its monetary easing cycle.
Core Macroeconomic Vectors of the Release:
Inflation and Rouble Trajectory: Surge in oil revenues driven by Middle East frictions turned the rouble into the world’s top-performing currency against the US dollar this quarter. The strengthening rouble lowered import costs, cooling annual inflation to a three-year low of 5.3% in May; however, the CBR categorizes this deceleration as a transitory factor.
Dominance of Inflationary Risks: Governor Elvira Nabiullina stated that a more expansionary (supportive) fiscal stance over the next three-year horizon than previously anticipated, coupled with rising fuel prices, keeps upside inflation risks elevated.
Fiscal Deficit and Growth Cuts: Driven by expanding Kremlin military expenditures, Russia's budget deficit (standing at 2.6% of GDP) continues to widen. Concurrently, the Ministry of Economy downgraded the nation's GDP growth forecast for 2026 from 1.3% to a meager 0.4%.
Note: This decision marks the latest step in the progressive easing cycle initiated after last year's historic peak of 21%. Nevertheless, due to sticky inflation expectations, capital markets project that interest rates are highly likely to remain in double-digit territory well into next year.
