OPEC Expects Global Energy Demand to Surge 23% by 2050

20:00 - 18.06.2026

June 18, Fineko/abc.az. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) projects global energy consumption to climb by 23% by 2050 compared to 2025 levels, reaching approximately 383 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d). According to OPEC’s newly released World Oil Outlook (WOO) 2026 report, population expansion to 9.7 billion and a more than twofold expansion of the global economy (to $359 trillion) will remain the core structural drivers of long-term energy demand.

According to ABC.AZ, the definitive macro-financial metrics from the comprehensive energy forecast include:

  • Oil Retains Top Spot in Energy Mix: Oil will maintain its status as the largest single fuel component in the global energy matrix through 2050, accounting for nearly 30% of aggregate demand. Combined with natural gas, hydrocarbons will capture a 54% share. Concurrently, global power generation is expected to expand by over 85% to reach 59,500 terawatt-hours (TWh).

  • Crude Oil Demand to Hit 124.1 Million BPD: Global oil demand is forecast to climb to 113.3 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2030 and further accelerate to 124.1 million bpd by 2050. Virtually all demand growth will originate from non-OECD developing economies, spearheaded by India (+8.1 million bpd expansion), followed by the Middle East and Africa, while expansion in China is expected to moderate.

  • OPEC+ Market Expansion After 2030: OPEC models indicate that US tight oil (shale) production likely peaked in 2025 at just over 9 million bpd, leading to subdued non-OPEC expansion down the line. Consequently, the market share of the OPEC+ alliance is projected to rise from 48% to 52% by 2050, with its liquid fuel supply expanding to 64.5 million bpd.

  • $17.7 Trillion Investment Requirement: To securely meet long-term crude demand, cumulative oil sector investments of $17.7 trillion are required between 2026 and 2050. This capital deployment includes $14.5 trillion designated for upstream (exploration and production) developments.

  • Logistics and Trade Shifting East: Global oil trade volumes are slated to expand by 25% to 69 million bpd by 2050. The Middle East will cement its position as the premier global exporting hub, while the Asia-Pacific region will remain the primary destination for crude imports.