19:29 - 11.06.2026
June 11, Fineko/abc.az. The European Central Bank (ECB) is poised to engineer its first interest rate hike since 2023, responding directly to systemic core inflation waves triggered by the war involving Iran. The conclusion of the monetary policy meeting on June 10-11 marks a major structural shift for the Eurozone.
According to ABC.AZ, referencing Bloomberg consensus data, macroeconomists expect the landmark deposit rate to be raised by a quarter-percentage point to 2.25%. The monetary tightening would establish the ECB as the world's first major central bank to hike rates in direct response to the active Middle East geopolitical conflict.
Key Structural and Forecast Parameters:
Stagflationary Adjustments: With Eurozone consumer price indexes tracking at 3.2% in May, upcoming quarterly staff projections are expected to show sharper upward revisions for headline inflation alongside downscaled GDP growth paths. This is heavily driven by extended high crude oil baselines.
Multiple Tightening Cycles: Much like peer institutions in the US and the UK, Eurozone policymakers initially attempted to buy time, hoping energy shocks would prove transitory. However, stalled peace talks and broadening price pressures suggest the ECB may be forced to deploy multiple restrictive steps this fiscal year.
Commentary by David Powell and Simona Delle Chiaie (Bloomberg Economists): "A 25-basis-point rate hike at the ECB's June meeting is almost a done deal. While it remains less clear how explicit President Christine Lagarde will be regarding the Governing Council's next move, we expect her to signal that a subsequent rate hike is firmly on the table in much more hawkish terms than previously heard."
