14:00 - 6.06.2026

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June 6, Fineko/abc.az. International rating agency Fitch Ratings has released its latest report on the global oil market. The agency maintained its 2026 average Brent crude price forecast at $87 per barrel, assuming the Strait of Hormuz reopens by the end of July.

ABC.AZ reports that while the closure of the strait created a logistics-driven supply shock, it has not altered the underlying market outlook. The rating agency projects that the oil market will shift back into a supply surplus starting from September.

Price and Production Forecasts:

• Strait of Hormuz Scenario: Fitch's $87 price projection assumes the strait will reopen by late July after being closed for roughly five months. However, uncertainty regarding the exact timeline leaves risks to prices balanced in both directions.

• Temporary Disruption: The agency emphasized that the current price rally stems from a temporary logistical supply shock rather than a permanent loss of production capacity. Once the strait becomes operational, Brent prices are expected to drop significantly from the highs seen during the March-July period.

• Supply Reduction: Excluding the deployment of strategic petroleum reserves, global oil supply in 2026 is estimated to average 2.9 million barrels per day (bpd) lower year-on-year due to the 5-month shutdown.

Surplus Anticipated by Autumn: Noting that regional oil infrastructure sustained no severe damage, Fitch predicts a swift rebalancing. Driven by a rapid recovery in Middle Eastern output, robust non-OPEC supply growth, and OPEC spare capacity that could exceed pre-conflict quotas, the market is set to enter a surplus by September.

"Depending on OPEC policies, we expect a supply surplus of approximately 4 million bpd in the fourth quarter of 2026. This will trigger inventory builds and push oil prices downward. For 2026 as a whole, we forecast that global supply will outpace demand."