11:26 - 5.06.2026

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June 5, Fineko/abc.az. International rating agency Fitch Ratings has updated its forecasts for development of the Turkish economy. The organization raised its inflation forecast, but noted that monetary policy in the country will remain tight this year.

ABC.AZ informs that Agency's updated report presents key economic benchmarks for the next 3 years.

Fitch's key macroeconomic forecasts:

Exchange rate forecast (USD/TRY): According to Fitch estimates, the dollar exchange rate against the Turkish lira will end 2026 at 51 TRY. In the following years, the lira is expected to weaken further: to 59 TRY by the end of 2027 and to 67 TRY by the end of 2028.

Inflation expectations: The Agency has revised its inflation forecast for the end of 2026 upward from 25% to 29.5%. At the same time, inflation is expected to slow to 22.5% by the end of 2027, and to 18% by the end of 2028.

Discount rate (Central Bank of Turkey): Experts predict that the discount rate of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (TCMB) will be 35% by the end of 2026. It is expected to decrease to 24.5% by the end of 2027 and to 22% by the end of 2028.

Economic growth (GDP): Fitch has improved forecasts for the growth of the Turkish economy. GDP is expected to grow by 2.8% in 2026 (2.6% was forecast in the March report), by 4.4% in 2027 (3.5% was previously forecast), and 3.8% in 2028.

Fitch's analysis shows that despite expectations of an acceleration in economic growth in Turkey, inflationary pressures in the country are still high.