Fitch Forecasts Azerbaijan's Sovereign FX Assets to Hit $93 Billion in 2026

15:00 - 6.06.2026

June 6, Fineko/abc.az. International rating agency Fitch Ratings expects elevated global oil prices—boosted by ongoing Middle East tensions—to drive a strong accumulation of foreign-currency assets for Azerbaijan.

According to the report reviewed by ABC.AZ, Azerbaijan's sovereign foreign-currency assets are projected to scale up to USD 93 billion in 2026, representing 117% of the country's projected GDP. The State Oil Fund of Azerbaijan (SOFAZ) will hold 84% of these assets, with the remainder maintained in the international reserves of the Central Bank of the Republic of Azerbaijan (CBRA). Net sovereign foreign assets will reach 73% of GDP, the highest among all 'BBB' rated peers.

Fitch also forecasts solid twin surpluses for the year:

  • Current Account Surplus: Driven by robust energy export revenues and moderate import demand, the current account surplus is forecasted to widen to 9% of GDP in 2026, up from 4.6% in 2025.

  • Consolidated Budget Surplus: Expected to reach 5.6% of GDP in 2026. Spending will remain relatively stable as the government continues to prioritize national defense and the reconstruction of recovered territories.