11:15 - 3.03.2026
March 3, Fineko/abc.az. For four days now, events taking place in the Middle East and around Iran have begun to have impact on the economies of the region's countries.
This is most noticeably reflected in oil prices. In recent days, they have been fluctuating: growth is followed by a decline, and the dynamics remains unstable. The question arises - how long will this volatility last and will prices continue to rise?
We asked this question to the chairman of the Azerbaijan Society of Appraisers, economist Vugar Oruj.
In the comment for ABC.AZ, he also noted that Iran is a member of OPEC+ and, therefore, is directly involved in regulating oil prices.
According to Oruj, the current situation has created an extremely high level of risks:
"If tensions between the United States, Israel and Iran reach a limit and escalate into a military confrontation, the level of risks will inevitably increase, which will directly affect the price of oil. In the event of a protracted conflict, a significant increase in prices is possible, up to a rise in the price of Brent crude oil by around 15-17%. If the conflict turns out to be short-term, we forecast growth in the range of 5-10%.
Current processes create problems with oil supplies and cause tension on the markets and stock exchanges. As risks increase, investors' expectations regarding profitability also grow, and a new market situation is emerging. In this context, a rise in oil prices is almost inevitable. Moreover, in the context of any military conflict, oil prices traditionally rise - this is a kind of unspoken law."
By Elmir Muradov
