11:57 - 31.10.2023

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October 31, Fineko/abc.az. The ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas could lead to a dramatic surge in global oil prices exceeding $150 per barrel.

ABC.AZ reports that the World Bank’s analysts have come to such a conclusion.

Analysts described three scenarios of possible situation in the markets.

For example, in the event of a large crisis in the Middle East, which will significantly disrupt the oil supply chain, its global supply may decrease by 6-8 million b/d.

"As a result, oil prices may initially rise by 56-75% — up to $140-157 per barrel," experts say.

A less serious crisis, similar in consequences to the 2003 Iraq war, will lead to a decrease in oil supplies by 3-5 million b/d and lead to an increase in prices to $109-121 a barrel.

And if the scale of the crisis is comparable to the consequences of the civil war in Libya in 2011, the reduction in supply will not be so huge — supplies will decrease by 500,000 – 2 million b/d. In this case, prices will jump to $93-102 a barrel.