IMF updates forecast for Azerbaijan's real GDP growth in non-oil sector in 2025

16:48 - 21.10.2025


October 20, Fineko/abc.az. In the October issue of the Regional Economic Outlook 2025, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) maintained its forecasts for Azerbaijan's GDP growth in the non-resource sector, but made minor adjustments to forecasts for the oil sector.

According to the IMF, GDP growth in the non-oil sector is expected to reach 4.5% in 2025, 3.7% in 2026 and 3.5% in 2030, which is fully in line with forecasts made in May 2025.

As for the oil sector, the IMF now forecasts a 0.5% decline in 2025 and 2026, as well as maintaining the same level in 2030. This is a small adjustment compared to the forecast for May 2025; at that time, a decrease of 0.2% in 2025 and 0.5% in 2026 and 2030 was expected.

The IMF also estimates Azerbaijan's nominal GDP at $76.4 bn for 2025 and $80 bn for 2026. These figures are slightly lower than the May forecasts - $78.9 bn for 2025 and $81.9 bn for 2026.