11:46 - 18.07.2023

---

July 18, Fineko/abc.az. Goldman Sachs Group analysts now estimate the probability of recession in the US economy in the next 12 months at 20% against the previous estimate of 25%.

ABC.AZ reports that the main reason for the decline in the probability of recession was the fact that recent data strengthened the confidence of Goldman Sachs economists that reducing inflation to an acceptable level would not require a recession.

The growth rate of consumer prices in the U.S. in June fell to 3%, having updated the minimum for two years.

According to economists, the Fed will still raise the key rate by 25 basis points in July, but the cycle of tightening monetary policy may end there.

Goldman economists believe the growth rate of the American economy in the 2nd quarter may be about 2.6%. In the 1st quarter, GDP in the U.S. increased by 2% in terms of annual rates.